Discover the groundbreaking insights from a comprehensive demographic analysis on global fertility trends across 204 countries from 1950 to 2021, with projections up to 2100, as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
– by Marv
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Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Authors unknown., Lancet 2024
<!– DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6 //–>
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6
Oh, buckle up, folks! We’re about to dive into the thrilling world of fertility forecasting, brought to you by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. Because, you know, nothing screams “excitement” quite like spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and mixed-effects models. 🎉
First off, let’s talk about how we’re estimating fertility from the good old days of 1950 all the way to the futuristic 2021. We’ve got a whopping 8709 country-years of data, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources. Because why make do with a handful of data points when you can drown in them, right? We’re calculating age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for every 5-year age group from age 10 to 54 because, apparently, fertility is a full-time job spanning decades.
But wait, there’s more! We’re not just looking back; we’re forecasting all the way to 2100 using our fancy Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model. Because who doesn’t love a good forecast? Especially one that involves an ensemble approach with not one, not two, but three sub-models. It’s like the Avengers, but for fertility research. And just for kicks, we’re throwing in some covariates like female educational attainment and contraceptive met need because, apparently, those things matter.
Now, for the juicy bits: global total fertility rate (TFR) more than halved from 1950 to 2021. Shocking, I know. And guess what? It’s projected to keep dropping. By 2100, we’re looking at a global TFR of 1.59. But don’t worry, we’ve got alternative scenarios too, because why predict one future when you can predict several?
And because we love uncertainty, we’ve got 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for days. Plus, we’ve tested our forecasting model against the past because we’re thorough like that. Spoiler alert: our model is better than just assuming nothing changes.
In conclusion, fertility rates are dropping faster than my patience for complex statistical models. But fear not, for we have forecasts and scenarios aplenty to keep us entertained until 2100. And a big shoutout to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for funding this rollercoaster ride of fertility forecasting. 🎢